Breaking Down Breakdown: 2010 Season

As shown time and time again over the 9 year history of the NKFBL, luck has a lot to do with the outcome of the NKFBL each season. Running into the right or wrong teams during any given week can cause a significant difference in record at the end of the season. In the last 6 seasons, luck has cost a team as much as 4.5 games in the standings and improved their record up to 3.5 games. Oddly enough, both occurrences were the former North Kingstown Friars and the current Ballyhooly Ballers.

To determine how luck factors into the NKFBL, we use breakdown to come up with each team's Projected Win total. The Projected Win total is simply each team's Breakdown Winning Percentage multiplied by the number of team games played in an NKFBL season (23).

Each team's actual Wins that season are then subtracted from the Projected Wins, coming up with the Win Difference stat. A positive Win Difference means that a team was unlucky during the NKFBL season and a negative Win Difference displays luck in a team's favor. The Win Difference number, positive or negative, is how many games in the standings that were swung either way by luck.

Here is a breakdown of how luck factored into the 2010 NKFBL Season.
(Ranked by Win Difference (lucky to unlucky) and Projected Wins)

Negative: These teams had a difference of 1 or more games in bad luck during the 2010 season.

Polska Pandas- The wheels came off the Pandas in the last 6 weeks of the 2010 season as they finished 1-5 down the stretch, ending their stretch of 2 consecutive winning seasons after failing to achieve one prior to 2008. The numbers show that the Pandas ran into some tough matchups over that stretch and finished with a Win Difference of 3.03 games (4th unluckiest all time).

Hell Benders- The Hell Benders (or Blind Dogs according to my Excel file) showed a lot of improvement in 2010, but unfortunately were only able to better their win total by 2 games. This was due mostly to poor luck. The stats show that the Benders were a 12+ win team that suffered over 2 games worth of poor luck in 2010. The Benders outperformed their win total dramatically last season, making them a popular sleeper pick and sub .500 team to watch in 2011.

Brew Crew- The Brew Crew regressed significantly in 2010, going from a 17-win juggernaut and league runner-up in 2009 to a 10-13 team in 2010. Their 7-game drop off was most in NKFBL history. The Brew Crew were a 12-win team according to their breakdown, so unfavorable scheduling played a bit of a role in their poor season.

New England Bombers- The Bombers impressive breakdown (6th best in NKFBL history) was no secret all season long in 2010. However, their lack of wins was and the Bombers let anyone know who would listen. A 6-game winning streak to close out the regular season salvaged their season and lowered their Win Difference to only 1.6475 games.

Neutral- These teams had a difference of less than 1 game of luck, positive or negative, during the 2010 season.

Ballers- The Ballers were truly awful in 2010 and their breakdown confirmed just how weak of a team this was. The Ballers did suffer from nearly a game's worth of bad luck, but their breakdown was 2nd worst in NKFBL history, topped only by the 2009 Smoke Monsters.

RIC Anchormen- The Anchormen have been the most "Even Steven" team in the NKFBL since the stat has been tracked the last 6 seasons. In 5 of these 6 seasons, the Anchormen have fallen in the neutral category. Bad luck has not kept this team from reaching .500, but good luck has also not been a factory in the history of the Anchormen.

Wickford Walnuts- The Walnuts slowed down in the 2nd half of the 2010 season after an overachieving, red hot start. Their breakdown was a story during their 8-1 start to the season, but a 5-9 end to the season put this team right where it deserved to be.

Positive: These teams had a difference of 1 or more games in good luck during the 2010 season.

RI Quahogs- The Quahogs were the luckiest team in the NKFBL last season with nearly 3 game's worth of good luck (4th best all time). This luck helped them accomplish their 2nd straight 16-win season, but once again, their luck swung dramatically in the playoffs as they have run into monster opponents again and again.

The Carbombs- The Carbombs shockingly won an NKFBL best 17 games in 2010 despite an 0-2 start. The veteran team was aided by 2.6 (5th best all time) games worth of positive luck and may be a candidate for a big drop off in 2011 if their luck turns.

Cuban Rampage- The Rampage somehow willed their way to 11 wins last season despite what was a barren roster. Not that the Cuban ownership believes in stats (or reason) besides wins and losses, but this was more of a 9-win team according to the numbers.

Attack Pigeons- The Pigeons were another historically bad team in 2010, but their impotence was hidden a by a game and a half worth of good luck. Their breakdown was 3rd worst in NKFBL history and a franchise turnaround could be years away.

Smoke Monsters- The Smoke Monsters' amazing 10-win turnaround was the story of the 2010 NKFBL season and won Kevin O'Brien the Owner of the Year award. Shockingly, the Monsters were only beneficiaries of 1.4 games worth of good luck. Their turnaround was legit and the Monsters seem like a major factor in the NKFBL for many years to come.